PickGridlocks.com | Football Betting Analytics & Predictions

GRIDLOCK MODEL AUDIT

PREGAME PICKS

Frozen before kickoff. Pick tiers are GRIDLOCK ratings, not guarantees of returns. Completed games are graded against the stored line.

FROZEN • ATS GRADED

MODEL PICKS LEDGER NFL: 1 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 7+ • NCAA: 1 / 4 / 6 / 9 / 12+

GRIDLOCK MATCHUP PREDICTOR MODEL

WIN PROBABILITY

50%

GRIDLOCK

50%

0

INJURY & ROLE WATCH LATEST MODEL STATUS

GAME PROJECTION FULL-GAME OUTPUT

PROJECTED SCORE

0–0

GAME SHAPE

TOP FANTASY PROJECTIONS

PLAYER PROJECTIONS PPR ESTIMATE

PLAYER	POS	TEAM	FPTS	VOL	YDS	ROLE

FULL TEAM PROJECTION MODEL OUTPUT

ALL PLAYER PROJECTIONS FANTASY + VOLUME

PLAYER	POS	TEAM	FPTS	TARGETS/CARRIES	YARDS	ROLE

STARTER WATCH

ROLE IMPACT

MATCHUP DRIVERS WHAT MOVES THE MODEL

GRIDLOCK COLLEGE

NCAA FOOTBALL SCHEDULE

FBS slate • live schedule sync • Advantage Winner Model predictions from verified game history

ADVANTAGE WINNER MODEL V3

LOADING SCHEDULESchedule validation: FBSchedules • live game data: ESPN

—GAMES

0WITH PROJECTIONS

—FBS TEAMS ACTIVE

—UPDATED

💎 TOP VALUE OF THE WEEK
Live games use current score + live projection • Pregame uses frozen model

LOADING

Calculating this week's strongest values…

🐾 UPSET WATCH
Top +money underdogs with GRIDLOCK value

LOADING

Loading dogs…

⭐ FEATURED MATCHUP

Selecting the strongest current value…

TEAM LOGS • LAST 5

Team context will appear with the featured value.

WHY THE EDGE?

Model and market comparison loading.

🏆 FINAL GAME ARCHIVE
Frozen pregame projection vs actual final

DATEMATCHUPPROJ SCOREFINAL SCOREMARGIN ERRTOTAL ERRWINNERSPREADTOTAL

Historical resultsResults appear when an archived pregame forecast can be matched to a final score.

ADVANTAGE MODEL + VERIFIED SOURCESGRIDLOCK projections, win probabilities and market comparisons. Forecasts are estimates; available coverage varies by game.

Away

GRIDLOCK

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PROJECTION

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Home

LIVE FIELD STATE ESPN GAME STATE

Field position activates when ESPN publishes possession and situation data.

WIN PROBABILITY & GAME ANALYSIS

GAME CENTER PREGAME

WIN PROBABILITY • PREGAME VS LIVE PREGAME

Live win probability activates after kickoff.

MOMENTUM LIVE GAME STATE

Momentum activates after live stats and plays begin to populate.

LIVE GRIDLOCK PROJECTION WAITING

Live projection activates when the game begins.

PLAY BY PLAY ESPN LIVE FEED

Play-by-play will load when available.

PROJECTION SUMMARY

MARKET COMPARISON

GRIDLOCK PREDICTIONS

MONTE CARLO GAME SIMULATOR

RUNS

FINAL MARGIN DISTRIBUTION · HOME MINUS AWAY

GAME TOTAL DISTRIBUTION

SIMULATED SCORE CLOUD · AWAY VS HOME

MODEL ANALYTICS

Projections and independently sourced team profiles are shown in the Gamecast and projections tabs.

GAME CHAT

Messages in this room are saved on this device.

MONTE CARLO SIMULATOR CUSTOM RUN

SIMULATIONS

PROJECTOR

TEAM

OVER / UNDER LINE

Runs locally in your browser. The line is your test number, not a sportsbook feed. Results update from the active GRIDLOCK matchup projection.

SIMULATION RESULTS 10,000 RUNS

MODEL MEAN

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Projected result

ABOVE / OVER

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Hit rate

BELOW / UNDER

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Hit rate

MEDIAN

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10th–90th percentile

HIT PROBABILITY

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Choose a projector, enter your line, and run the model. For score margin, the selected team's simulated margin is compared with your entered spread. Example: -3.5 means the selected team must finish more than 3.5 points ahead of that threshold to register above/cover.

IF THIS → THEN THIS CONDITIONAL SIMULATION

IF THIS HAPPENS

CONDITION

CONDITION TEAM

CONDITION LINE

→

THEN DOES THIS HIT?

TARGET PROJECTOR

TARGET TEAM

PLAYER

PLAYER STAT

SIDE

TARGET LINE

CONDITION OCCURS

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Sample

TARGET HIT OVERALL

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Unconditional

TARGET HIT IF CONDITION

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Conditional probability

LIFT / DRAG

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Conditional vs overall

Example: IF New England wins → THEN does a selected player prop go over? This measures P(target | condition), not just the player's normal hit rate.

ALTERNATE LINE VALUE PRICE VS MODEL

ALT LINE

BET SIDE

AMERICAN ODDS

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Enter an alternate line and its price. GRIDLOCK compares the market's break-even probability with the simulator's hit probability.

SIM HIT RATE

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MARKET IMPLIED

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MODEL FAIR ODDS

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EDGE

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EV / $100 STAKED

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$100 WIN PROFIT

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Example: +200 requires a 33.3% break-even hit rate. If the simulator hits that alternate line 40% of the time, the model sees positive expected value before limits, vig changes, or model error.

MATCHUP NEWS & ROLE INTELLIGENCE CURATED

MATCHUP CHATON THIS DEVICE

GAME ROOM

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ROOM ACTIVE

DISPLAY NAME

Messages are separated by matchup and saved on this device.

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